Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 16:21, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4199 Envoy	TVC 16:21	DFW 18:21	10%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:30 → ORD 08:58UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441	5h 42m	99%	91%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 26m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 31m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON