Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2292 TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest 9E 5179 TVC 18:25 → DTW 19:28 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2292 Delta Flight history →	TVC 06:45	DTW 07:52	6%	2%	0.6%	83%
9E 5189 Endeavor	TVC 12:19	DTW 13:14	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
9E 5179 Endeavor	TVC 18:25	DTW 19:28	9%	3%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON