Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	2h 23m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 11m	99%	90%
United Details →	TVC 08:30 → ORD 08:58UA 3713 · flown by Republic	3h 18m Chicago	ORD 12:16 → EWR 15:44UA 606	7h 14m	99%	87%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	2h 46m Denver	DEN 19:13 → EWR 01:01 +1UA 2093	9h 33m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON