Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day


YV 4078 Mesa	TVC 16:48	IAH 19:22	11%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TVC 08:31 → ORD 08:59UA 3713 · flown by Republic	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:40UA 1448	8h 09m	99%	89%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	3h 08m Denver	DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475	8h 38m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	48m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	4h 52m	91%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON