Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 13:36, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 13:36	MSP 14:14	11%	4%	0.7%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:45 → DTW 07:52DL 2292	3h 37m Detroit	DTW 11:29 → MSP 12:18DL 1746	6h 33m	99%	93%
United Details →	TVC 08:30 → ORD 08:58UA 3713 · flown by Republic	1h 48m Chicago	ORD 10:46 → MSP 12:22UA 215	4h 52m	99%	88%
United Details →	TVC 15:28 → DEN 16:27UA 1306	1h 18m Denver	DEN 17:45 → MSP 20:51UA 2076	6h 23m	92%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON