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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 3713 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–24%.

Safest bet that day UA 3713 TVC 08:30 → ORD 08:58 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time Riskiest OO 5865 TVC 17:59 → ORD 18:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 3713 United flown by Republic Flight history → TVC 08:30 ORD 08:58 5% 1% 0.6% 47%
UA 2271 United TVC 06:11 ORD 06:14 7% 3% 0.7% no record
UA 346 United TVC 10:25 ORD 10:46 8% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 4900 SkyWest TVC 07:56 ORD 08:35 9% 4% 0.7% no record
OO 6298 SkyWest TVC 11:06 ORD 11:48 11% 4% 0.7% no record
OO 5839 SkyWest TVC 11:53 ORD 12:14 16% 4% 0.7% no record
OO 6209 SkyWest TVC 15:07 ORD 15:36 16% 5% 0.7% no record
OO 6297 SkyWest TVC 19:36 ORD 20:10 19% 5% 0.7% no record
OO 5592 SkyWest TVC 14:05 ORD 14:26 22% 5% 0.7% no record
OO 5865 SkyWest TVC 17:59 ORD 18:20 24% 5% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON