tailodds FORECAST
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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 4–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3015 TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest 9E 5209 TYS 14:04 → ATL 15:07 · 10% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 3015 Delta Flight history → TYS 05:40 ATL 06:40 4% 2% 0.6% 94%
DL 1743 Delta Flight history → TYS 11:57 ATL 12:59 6% 2% 0.6% 92%
DL 1817 Delta TYS 10:19 ATL 11:22 6% 2% 0.7% no record
DL 5317 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → TYS 08:05 ATL 09:31 7% 5% 0.7% 85%
DL 1148 Delta Flight history → TYS 15:54 ATL 16:53 9% 2% 0.6% 83%
9E 5555 Endeavor TYS 09:28 ATL 10:31 9% 4% 0.7% no record
DL 2571 Delta Flight history → TYS 18:05 ATL 19:09 10% 3% 0.6% 71%
DL 5279 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history → TYS 08:45 ATL 09:48 10% 5% 0.7% 74%
9E 5209 Endeavor TYS 14:04 ATL 15:07 10% 3% 0.7% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON