Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3972 Southwest	TYS 06:59	BNA 07:01	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4624 Southwest	TYS 17:34	BNA 17:35	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:41DL 3069	4h 01m	98%	94%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 20:24 → BNA 20:38DL 3002	5h 44m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	6h 10m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 15:13 → BNA 15:26DL 3142	4h 29m	99%	90%
American Details →	TYS 08:14 → CLT 09:24AA 5641 · flown by PSA	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 13:15 → BNA 13:44AA 538	6h 30m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:15 → DTW 09:04DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor	3h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557	6h 48m	95%	89%
United Details →	TYS 10:18 → ORD 11:23UA 4584 · flown by GoJet	2h 55m Chicago	ORD 14:18 → BNA 16:03UA 2142	6h 45m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	4h 55m	94%	88%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TYS 18:37 → PHL 20:39AA 5952 · flown by Piedmont	51m Philadelphia	PHL 21:30 → BNA 22:46AA 2277	5h 09m	67%	56%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:02 → LGA 13:07DL 5113 · flown by Endeavor	48m New York	LGA 13:55 → BNA 15:31DL 2748	5h 29m	63%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON