Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, WN 3973 at 08:09, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3973 Southwest	TYS 08:09	BWI 10:04	3%	1%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → BWI 10:47DL 801	5h 07m	98%	92%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → BWI 17:15DL 1267	5h 18m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	TYS 08:05 → ATL 09:31DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	4h 56m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:26 → DTW 09:09DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546	4h 21m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	TYS 15:54 → ATL 16:53DL 1148	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	5h 32m	99%	87%
American Details →	TYS 08:14 → CLT 09:23AA 5641 · flown by PSA	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 12:35 → BWI 14:11AA 2733	5h 57m	98%	86%
American Details →	TYS 14:29 → DFW 15:48AA 2544	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:07 → BWI 21:25AA 2251	6h 56m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON