Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 994 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 994 TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2550 TYS 17:35 → DFW 19:11 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 994 American Flight history →	TYS 05:37	DFW 07:06	6%	3%	1.4%	90%
AA 5425 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 07:01	DFW 08:34	11%	6%	1.6%	77%
AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 11:43	DFW 13:10	14%	6%	1.2%	79%
AA 2544 American Flight history →	TYS 14:29	DFW 15:48	18%	6%	1.5%	76%
AA 2550 American Flight history →	TYS 17:35	DFW 19:11	22%	8%	7.7%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON