Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3079 at 07:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3079 American	TYS 07:00	MIA 09:19	10%	4%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	5h 17m	98%	91%
American Details →	TYS 05:00 → CLT 06:23AA 5954 · flown by Piedmont	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 09:13 → MIA 11:24AA 3184	6h 24m	97%	87%
United Details →	TYS 05:45 → IAD 07:30UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 15m Dulles	IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073	5h 50m	94%	87%
American Details →	TYS 08:14 → CLT 09:24AA 5641 · flown by PSA	1h 38m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	4h 57m	96%	86%
American Details →	TYS 07:00 → DCA 08:50AA 5149 · flown by PSA	1h 14m Washington	DCA 10:04 → MIA 13:03AA 401	6h 03m	93%	85%
Delta Details →	TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 50m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	TYS 07:35 → ATL 08:47DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332	5h 27m	93%	84%
American Details →	TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994	1h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → MIA 13:09AA 1219	7h 32m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON