Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1553 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1553 TYS 05:49 → ORD 06:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5869 TYS 18:02 → ORD 18:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1553 United	TYS 05:49	ORD 06:44	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1577 United	TYS 10:42	ORD 11:36	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4102 Envoy	TYS 11:27	ORD 12:18	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3716 Envoy	TYS 08:07	ORD 09:11	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
G7 4548 GoJet	TYS 14:01	ORD 14:53	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
OO 6344 SkyWest	TYS 20:25	ORD 21:25	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	TYS 16:47	ORD 17:44	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
OO 5869 SkyWest	TYS 18:02	ORD 18:59	22%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON