Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 4–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2451 VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 2170 VPS 17:04 → ATL 19:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2451 Delta Flight history →	VPS 07:00	ATL 09:18	4%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 3051 Delta Flight history →	VPS 09:21	ATL 11:34	5%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2048 Delta Flight history →	VPS 11:15	ATL 13:35	5%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 3085 Delta Flight history →	VPS 06:00	ATL 08:15	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2832 Delta Flight history →	VPS 14:45	ATL 17:04	6%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 2170 Delta	VPS 17:04	ATL 19:18	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON