Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2185 VPS 07:16 → CLT 10:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OH 5069 VPS 12:53 → CLT 15:37 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2185 American Flight history →	VPS 07:16	CLT 10:03	5%	3%	0.7%	88%
OH 5077 PSA	VPS 16:48	CLT 19:33	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
OH 5069 PSA	VPS 12:53	CLT 15:37	12%	3%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON