Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, MQ 4110 at 12:31, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


MQ 4110 Envoy	VPS 12:31	DCA 16:06	11%	3%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798	4h 47m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	4h 27m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	4h 35m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 11:15 → ATL 13:35DL 2048	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	6h 22m	100%	81%
American Details →	VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Miami	MIA 10:04 → DCA 12:53AA 1612	5h 53m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378	7h 03m	99%	79%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:33AA 2399	6h 03m	90%	79%
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	7h 26m	95%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON