tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 50m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 5h 29m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → VPS 11:42 → ATL 13:56DL 2048 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:49DL 433 5h 07m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 20:32 → LGA 22:45DL 490 7h 00m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:16 → CLT 10:03AA 2185 1h 48m Charlotte CLT 11:51 → LGA 13:48AA 2268 5h 32m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:24 → DFW 09:47AA 2560 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:47 → LGA 15:30AA 2922 7h 06m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → VPS 05:32 → MIA 08:20AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 48m Miami MIA 10:08 → LGA 13:13AA 2424 6h 41m 98% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON