Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Minneapolis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 07:00 → ATL 09:18DL 2451	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 50m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	5h 30m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825	6h 46m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 18:37 → MSP 20:23DL 2654	5h 38m	97%	86%
American Details →	VPS 07:16 → CLT 10:02AA 2185	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 12:22 → MSP 14:09AA 1671	6h 53m	98%	85%
American Details →	VPS 06:30 → DFW 08:49AA 2560	3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:00 → MSP 14:36AA 1668	8h 06m	98%	84%
American Details →	VPS 15:33 → DFW 17:50AA 2501	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149	8h 24m	98%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON