Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1095 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1095 IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 7 DCA 18:59 → SFO 21:56 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	9%	2%	0.7%	88%
UA 369 United Flight history →	DCA 07:55	SFO 10:50	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1773 United	IAD 09:49	SFO 12:38	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	11%	3%	0.7%	86%
UA 367 United Flight history →	IAD 22:21	SFO 01:15	11%	5%	0.6%	84%
UA 2192 United Flight history →	BWI 08:01	SFO 11:01	12%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	15%	4%	0.6%	82%
WN 4375 Southwest	BWI 15:42	SJC 18:20	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	15%	4%	0.6%	79%
UA 796 United Flight history →	IAD 16:20	SFO 19:16	15%	5%	0.6%	84%
WN 122 Southwest	BWI 08:59	SFO 11:35	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2166 United	DCA 18:01	SFO 21:04	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:44	SFO 21:34	22%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	29%	8%	0.6%	60%
AS 7 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 18:59	SFO 21:56	29%	8%	0.8%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	7h 31m	92%	87%
American Details →	DCA 07:49 → PHX 09:39AA 2006	1h 23m Phoenix	PHX 11:02 → SJC 13:09AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	8h 20m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	BWI 05:40 → ATL 07:31DL 2950	54m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	7h 40m	93%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON