Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 52 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1409 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 1409 DCA 06:06 → MDW 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 590 BWI 17:32 → ORD 18:55 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1409 Southwest	DCA 06:06	MDW 07:05	4%	1%	1.6%	no record
WN 4094 Southwest	BWI 07:56	MDW 08:58	6%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 991 Southwest	BWI 10:32	MDW 11:36	7%	1%	1.0%	no record
YX 4596 Republic	BWI 06:04	ORD 07:13	9%	3%	2.5%	no record
UA 1793 United Flight history →	DCA 06:30	ORD 07:46	10%	3%	1.5%	92%
WN 2252 Southwest	DCA 09:34	MDW 10:34	10%	2%	1.5%	no record
WN 992 Southwest	BWI 14:52	MDW 15:56	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 3932 United	IAD 01:15	ORD 02:16	12%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 441 United Flight history →	DCA 07:42	ORD 08:52	13%	4%	1.4%	86%
UA 2774 United Flight history →	DCA 09:30	ORD 10:50	13%	5%	1.6%	94%
UA 1252 United Flight history →	IAD 10:31	ORD 11:53	13%	6%	0.8%	92%
UA 2691 United	IAD 05:54	ORD 06:52	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 523 American Flight history →	DCA 07:14	ORD 08:22	14%	5%	2.7%	78%
UA 1775 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	ORD 09:36	14%	4%	0.9%	84%
WN 4129 Southwest	DCA 12:10	MDW 13:12	15%	3%	1.4%	no record
YX 4541 Republic	DCA 22:10	ORD 23:23	15%	8%	4.7%	no record
WN 2679 Southwest	DCA 21:04	MDW 22:05	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 4002 Southwest	BWI 19:42	MDW 20:45	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1061 United Flight history →	DCA 08:25	ORD 09:43	16%	4%	1.3%	93%
WN 1411 Southwest	DCA 16:33	MDW 17:35	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 808 American Flight history →	DCA 11:35	ORD 12:49	16%	7%	2.1%	90%
WN 1195 Southwest	BWI 17:42	MDW 18:45	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 2633 American Flight history →	DCA 07:47	ORD 09:05	18%	6%	2.0%	87%
AA 2023 American Flight history →	DCA 10:11	ORD 11:18	18%	6%	1.8%	81%
AA 2284 American	DCA 13:33	ORD 14:40	18%	9%	1.8%	no record
YX 4758 Republic	BWI 18:12	ORD 19:28	19%	10%	2.6%	no record
AA 3762 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BWI 11:30	ORD 12:46	19%	6%	2.2%	79%
MQ 4253 Envoy	BWI 14:15	ORD 15:35	19%	7%	2.3%	no record
UA 1888 United Flight history →	DCA 14:00	ORD 15:19	19%	9%	1.3%	71%
UA 2749 United Flight history →	BWI 08:16	ORD 09:30	20%	6%	1.0%	86%
UA 2331 United Flight history →	IAD 13:15	ORD 14:29	20%	9%	0.8%	81%
UA 511 United Flight history →	DCA 13:00	ORD 14:19	20%	9%	1.3%	76%
UA 351 United Flight history →	DCA 09:23	ORD 10:23	21%	7%	1.3%	88%
AA 522 American	DCA 08:34	ORD 09:40	21%	6%	1.8%	no record
UA 421 United	IAD 22:16	ORD 23:14	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2803 United	DCA 11:55	ORD 13:03	21%	9%	1.4%	no record
WN 1413 Southwest	DCA 18:52	MDW 19:52	22%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 1221 American	DCA 14:59	ORD 16:14	22%	11%	2.5%	no record
UA 249 United	BWI 12:03	ORD 13:07	23%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 488 American	DCA 20:18	ORD 21:26	25%	13%	2.0%	no record
UA 1193 United Flight history →	DCA 19:10	ORD 20:32	28%	12%	1.4%	58%
UA 1223 United	BWI 19:00	ORD 20:13	29%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 3148 American	DCA 18:13	ORD 19:20	30%	13%	2.2%	no record
AA 1637 American Flight history →	DCA 15:51	ORD 16:59	30%	13%	2.5%	74%
UA 1325 United Flight history →	DCA 15:30	ORD 16:52	30%	13%	1.3%	66%
UA 2148 United Flight history →	DCA 18:10	ORD 19:32	31%	12%	1.3%	51%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	DCA 17:04	ORD 18:28	31%	15%	2.6%	61%
UA 654 United Flight history →	DCA 17:05	ORD 18:30	32%	13%	1.3%	50%
UA 2158 United	IAD 15:40	ORD 16:37	32%	13%	0.8%	no record
UA 2218 United Flight history →	DCA 20:37	ORD 21:35	32%	12%	1.4%	63%
UA 2497 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	ORD 18:50	33%	13%	0.7%	48%
UA 590 United Flight history →	BWI 17:32	ORD 18:55	35%	14%	0.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON