Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1124 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1124 BWI 06:35 → DAL 08:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4559 IAD 16:27 → DFW 18:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1124 Southwest	BWI 06:35	DAL 08:34	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4059 Southwest	DCA 06:21	DAL 08:22	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1839 American Flight history →	DCA 06:59	DFW 09:25	5%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 2007 American Flight history →	DCA 04:59	DFW 07:02	7%	2%	0.9%	90%
AA 1978 American Flight history →	DCA 07:59	DFW 10:31	7%	3%	0.9%	84%
WN 864 Southwest	BWI 09:30	DAL 11:27	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	7%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 795 American Flight history →	DCA 10:07	DFW 12:29	10%	3%	1.0%	90%
WN 928 Southwest	BWI 11:41	DAL 13:39	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2632 Southwest	DCA 10:44	DAL 12:40	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1403 American Flight history →	BWI 07:30	DFW 09:55	11%	3%	1.0%	85%
AA 1177 American Flight history →	DCA 13:44	DFW 16:11	12%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 1623 American Flight history →	DCA 11:59	DFW 14:23	12%	4%	1.0%	76%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	13%	4%	0.6%	79%
WN 4815 Southwest	BWI 15:20	DAL 17:18	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1624 American Flight history →	DCA 15:13	DFW 17:44	15%	5%	1.0%	82%
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 16:57	DFW 19:20	17%	6%	1.0%	83%
WN 1524 Southwest	DCA 14:14	DAL 16:11	18%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 1414 American Flight history →	DCA 17:11	DFW 19:41	18%	6%	1.2%	65%
AA 1158 American Flight history →	DCA 18:55	DFW 21:20	18%	7%	1.5%	61%
WN 2209 Southwest	DCA 20:16	DAL 22:18	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	20%	7%	0.6%	72%
F9 1475 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 12:35	DFW 14:51	20%	6%	0.8%	68%
WN 3680 Southwest	DCA 17:37	DAL 19:33	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2669 American	BWI 15:49	DFW 18:01	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 16:27	DFW 18:43	24%	7%	1.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON