Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1898 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1898 BWI 05:52 → IAH 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 3067 BWI 16:44 → IAH 19:07 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1898 United Flight history →	BWI 05:52	IAH 07:55	4%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 2783 Southwest	DCA 06:24	HOU 08:26	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
UA 1450 United Flight history →	DCA 06:00	IAH 08:13	5%	1%	0.7%	93%
WN 951 Southwest	BWI 07:43	HOU 09:45	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 1747 United	IAD 06:00	IAH 07:59	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 697 United Flight history →	DCA 08:20	IAH 10:41	9%	2%	0.8%	91%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	DCA 10:58	IAH 13:19	10%	3%	0.8%	86%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	IAH 10:59	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 1911 United	BWI 14:57	IAH 17:33	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAD 12:50	IAH 15:11	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
WN 952 Southwest	BWI 10:58	HOU 13:00	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 382 United Flight history →	DCA 12:59	IAH 15:18	13%	3%	0.8%	91%
OH 5496 PSA	DCA 07:33	IAH 09:40	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	DCA 19:28	IAH 21:59	15%	5%	0.7%	73%
WN 954 Southwest	BWI 13:56	HOU 15:57	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2607 United	IAD 15:02	IAH 17:26	15%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1379 Southwest	DCA 13:35	HOU 15:34	16%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1785 United Flight history →	DCA 16:59	IAH 19:27	17%	6%	0.7%	66%
UA 1463 United Flight history →	IAD 22:15	IAH 00:12	18%	4%	0.7%	95%worse than usual
OH 5591 PSA	DCA 13:59	IAH 16:26	18%	8%	1.2%	no record
WN 4640 Southwest	BWI 17:40	HOU 19:40	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1542 Southwest	DCA 17:42	HOU 19:40	22%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	23%	7%	0.7%	72%
OH 5411 PSA	DCA 20:46	IAH 22:54	24%	9%	1.5%	no record
F9 3067 Frontier Flight history →	BWI 16:44	IAH 19:07	26%	9%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON