Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 657 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 657 IAD 09:21 → LAX 11:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2276 IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:21 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 657 United	IAD 09:21	LAX 11:51	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1003 Southwest	BWI 09:04	LAX 11:28	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 2011 United	IAD 06:59	LAX 09:36	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 1591 United	BWI 07:56	LAX 10:39	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:26	LAX 10:59	10%	3%	0.7%	86%
AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	11%	4%	0.7%	83%
UA 1385 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	LAX 00:57	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	15%	5%	1.3%	75%
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	15%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 19:23	LAX 21:52	15%	6%	0.6%	66%
WN 4698 Southwest	BWI 20:16	LAX 22:39	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	16%	3%	0.9%	71%
WN 489 Southwest	BWI 15:44	LAX 18:08	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	18%	7%	0.7%	70%
UA 2319 United	IAD 17:52	SNA 20:43	19%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	21%	8%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 07:15 → SLC 09:50DL 1176	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173	8h 01m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	BWI 06:20 → MSP 07:54DL 2872	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	7h 50m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BWI 07:00 → ATL 08:52DL 2579	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → LAX 11:55DL 501	7h 55m	98%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON