Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3068 XNA 08:42 → ATL 11:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 5037 XNA 17:41 → ATL 20:40 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3068 Delta	XNA 08:42	ATL 11:46	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 1305 Delta	XNA 19:04	ATL 22:08	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5497 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 07:20	ATL 10:20	6%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 5339 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 09:51	ATL 12:51	7%	2%	0.7%	83%
OO 3795 SkyWest	XNA 06:02	ATL 09:11	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 3785 SkyWest	XNA 15:17	ATL 18:25	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 3739 SkyWest	XNA 11:57	ATL 15:06	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
9E 5037 Endeavor	XNA 17:41	ATL 20:40	11%	3%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON