Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 3824 at 07:00, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 3824 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:00	DCA 10:39	8%	2%	0.6%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 07:36 → ORD 09:41UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 34m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	5h 46m	100%	88%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 09:57 → DCA 13:13AA 315	7h 07m	97%	87%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → DCA 13:34AA 2399	7h 34m	99%	87%
American Details →	XNA 08:01 → DFW 09:33AA 1700	2h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	6h 58m	100%	86%
American Details →	XNA 07:06 → ORD 09:11AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:39 → DCA 13:44AA 1200	5h 38m	95%	84%
American Details →	XNA 09:45 → LGA 14:05AA 4591 · flown by Republic	3h 23m New York	LGA 17:28 → DCA 19:09AA 4736 · flown by Republic	8h 24m	100%	84%
American Details →	XNA 09:16 → ORD 11:11AA 3595 · flown by Envoy	3h 44m Chicago	ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00AA 2769	7h 44m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	XNA 11:16 → LGA 15:24DL 5482 · flown by Endeavor	3h 51m New York	LGA 19:15 → DCA 20:59DL 5724 · flown by Republic	8h 43m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON