Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 6–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 3603 XNA 10:37 → DFW 12:04 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2025 XNA 12:09 → DFW 13:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3603 Envoy	XNA 10:37	DFW 12:04	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 3583 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 18:43	DFW 20:36	7%	3%	0.6%	82%
MQ 4111 Envoy	XNA 09:14	DFW 10:39	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3614 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:00	DFW 06:20	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 14:39	DFW 16:08	9%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 3985 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:13	DFW 08:45	9%	3%	0.6%	75%
MQ 4135 Envoy	XNA 13:33	DFW 14:57	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1700 American Flight history →	XNA 08:01	DFW 09:33	9%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 16:10	DFW 17:37	11%	3%	0.7%	72%
AA 2025 American	XNA 12:09	DFW 13:31	12%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON