Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 4895 at 17:47, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4895 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 17:47	DTW 21:01	13%	3%	0.7%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 07:02 → ORD 09:07AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	3h 59m Chicago	ORD 13:06 → DTW 15:29AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:20DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	7h 22m	99%	90%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 09:58 → DTW 12:35AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 29m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:51 → ATL 12:51DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 36m	98%	88%
American Details →	XNA 09:46 → LGA 14:06AA 4591 · flown by Republic	3h 08m New York	LGA 17:14 → DTW 19:22AA 4414 · flown by Republic	8h 36m	100%	86%
American Details →	XNA 09:43 → CLT 13:11AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 15:36 → DTW 17:26AA 1134	6h 43m	99%	84%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Denver	DEN 17:47 → DTW 22:43UA 1220	8h 15m	100%	84%
American Details →	XNA 06:08 → DFW 07:33AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:27 → DTW 15:19AA 690	8h 11m	99%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON