tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6299 SkyWest XNA 16:13 LAX 17:53 11% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 220 SkyWest XNA 07:22 LAX 08:54 13% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:20DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 8h 52m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:51 → ATL 12:51DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:39 → LAX 17:22DL 301 9h 31m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:06 → ORD 09:11AA 3933 · flown by Envoy 2h 58m Chicago ORD 12:09 → LAX 14:37AA 3008 9h 31m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:36 → ORD 09:41UA 4612 · flown by GoJet 3h 19m Chicago ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363 9h 58m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:32 → LAX 10:54AA 3273 7h 54m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → XNA 09:16 → ORD 11:11AA 3595 · flown by Envoy 2h 39m Chicago ORD 13:50 → LAX 16:25AA 2903 9h 09m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:01 → DFW 09:33AA 1700 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:31 → LAX 13:48AA 3181 7h 47m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:53 → SLC 20:11DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → LAX 23:42DL 1197 7h 49m 100% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON