Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4585 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–23%.

Safest bet that day YX 4585 XNA 05:56 → LGA 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4472 XNA 16:35 → LGA 20:55 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4585 Republic	XNA 05:56	LGA 10:05	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 4591 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 09:45	LGA 14:05	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
AA 4472 American flown by Republic Flight history →	XNA 16:35	LGA 20:55	23%	6%	0.7%	68%
DL 5482 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	XNA 11:12	LGA 15:14	21%	9%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON