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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:20DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:32DL 1323 7h 12m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy 1h 38m Chicago ORD 08:50 → MIA 13:10AA 1250 7h 04m 94% 83%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:04 → MIA 13:09AA 1219 7h 09m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:00 → DCA 10:39AA 3824 · flown by Envoy 1h 16m Washington DCA 11:55 → MIA 14:38AA 1627 6h 38m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:08 → DFW 07:33AA 3985 · flown by Envoy 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:28 → MIA 14:33AA 1454 7h 25m 98% 79%
AmericanDetails → XNA 06:29 → PHL 10:38AA 5551 · flown by PSA 56m Philadelphia PHL 11:34 → MIA 14:34AA 1989 7h 05m 93% 78%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:36 → ORD 09:41UA 4612 · flown by GoJet 1h 12m Chicago ORD 10:53 → MIA 15:09UA 1620 6h 33m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 1h 18m Denver DEN 16:06 → MIA 22:09UA 445 7h 41m 97% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON