tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 3761 SkyWest XNA 11:41 MSP 13:39 11% 5% 0.5% no record
OO 3751 SkyWest XNA 16:53 MSP 18:50 12% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:01 → DFW 09:33AA 1700 2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:00 → MSP 14:37AA 1668 6h 36m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 1h 57m Atlanta ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:07DL 2825 6h 28m 94% 85%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy 1h 03m Chicago ORD 08:15 → MSP 10:01AA 4162 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 91% 85%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet 3h 25m Chicago ORD 12:55 → MSP 14:33UA 467 7h 11m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Denver DEN 17:45 → MSP 20:51UA 2076 7h 23m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901 6h 30m 92% 83%
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667 6h 53m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → XNA 11:12 → LGA 15:14DL 5482 · flown by Endeavor 2h 52m New York LGA 18:06 → MSP 19:58DL 2313 8h 46m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir 51m Houston IAH 14:28 → MSP 17:13UA 1818 5h 26m 68% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON