Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4088 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 4088 XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 4411 XNA 18:21 → ORD 20:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4088 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:06	ORD 07:12	11%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 09:12	ORD 11:07	11%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 3933 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:02	ORD 09:07	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 4612 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 07:36	ORD 09:41	15%	4%	0.8%	81%
G7 4435 GoJet	XNA 11:12	ORD 13:04	15%	4%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3470 Envoy	XNA 14:08	ORD 16:05	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
G7 4470 GoJet	XNA 14:56	ORD 16:57	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3660 Envoy	XNA 19:35	ORD 21:25	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 4411 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 18:21	ORD 20:12	22%	6%	0.8%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON