tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AA 5551 at 06:30, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history → XNA 06:30 PHL 10:39 5% 3% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:20DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 7h 44m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:36 → ORD 09:41UA 4612 · flown by GoJet 1h 52m Chicago ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182 6h 11m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:51 → ATL 12:51DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329 7h 21m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402 8h 00m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:01 → DFW 09:32AA 1700 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:06 → PHL 16:36AA 3147 7h 35m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:06 → ORD 09:11AA 3933 · flown by Envoy 2h 29m Chicago ORD 11:40 → PHL 14:54AA 1743 6h 48m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Denver DEN 17:54 → PHL 23:30UA 1510 9h 02m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → XNA 10:39 → CLT 13:56AA 5327 · flown by PSA 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 16:46 → PHL 18:34AA 864 6h 55m 100% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON