Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 4033 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 08:27	PHX 09:18	10%	2%	0.6%	93%
AA 2800 American	XNA 14:21	PHX 15:25	12%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 17:53 → SLC 20:11DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496	7h 38m	100%	89%
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:47 → PHX 10:54AA 2315	7h 54m	99%	88%
United Details →	XNA 07:36 → ORD 09:41UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 31m Chicago	ORD 11:12 → PHX 13:05UA 2164	7h 29m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:20DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366	8h 58m	98%	87%
American Details →	XNA 09:16 → ORD 11:11AA 3595 · flown by Envoy	2h 31m Chicago	ORD 13:42 → PHX 15:37AA 1640	8h 21m	100%	85%
American Details →	XNA 08:01 → DFW 09:33AA 1700	3h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:27 → PHX 14:11AA 1548	8h 10m	100%	85%
American Details →	XNA 07:13 → DFW 08:45AA 3985 · flown by Envoy	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:22 → PHX 12:05AA 359	6h 52m	96%	83%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Denver	DEN 18:23 → PHX 19:26UA 1507	7h 58m	100%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON