tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: United via Denver, leaving 17:06, is the safest bet: 67% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → XNA 17:53 SLC 20:11 5% 3% 0.5% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → XNA 06:30 → IAH 08:21UA 4051 · flown by Mesa 1h 34m Houston IAH 09:55 → SLC 12:23UA 2242 6h 53m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → XNA 07:20 → ATL 10:18DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor 3h 37m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423 9h 31m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:54 → SLC 10:55AA 1878 6h 55m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 6h 38m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 8h 39m 96% 87%
UnitedDetails → XNA 07:22 → ORD 09:30UA 4475 · flown by GoJet 3h 15m Chicago ORD 12:45 → SLC 15:22UA 1955 9h 00m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → XNA 07:06 → ORD 09:11AA 3933 · flown by Envoy 3h 49m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SLC 15:32AA 1873 9h 26m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy 2h 58m Chicago ORD 10:10 → SLC 12:34AA 3258 8h 28m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → XNA 08:27 → PHX 09:18AA 4033 · flown by Envoy 46m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SLC 12:47AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 5h 20m 73% 67%
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:59 → ATL 20:55DL 5126 · flown by Endeavor 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 22:25 → SLC 00:26 +1DL 453 7h 27m 69% 60%
UnitedDetails → XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir 48m Houston IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa 5h 53m 66% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON