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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2951 at 12:51, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2951 Southwest ABQ 12:51 BNA 16:38 17% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → BNA 11:42UA 605 5h 12m 97% 90%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117 56m Denver DEN 07:41 → BNA 11:16WN 1544 4h 55m 96% 89%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:46 → HOU 09:01WN 127 3h 50m Houston HOU 12:51 → BNA 14:56WN 2012 8h 10m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 6h 03m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 1h 28m Denver DEN 09:51 → BNA 13:41UA 355 5h 41m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 3h 25m Minneapolis MSP 15:29 → BNA 17:35DL 2612 8h 05m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:20 → ATL 16:30DL 1004 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 6h 32m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 07:02 → LAX 08:08AA 6444 · flown by SkyWest 1h 35m Los Angeles LAX 09:43 → BNA 15:57AA 1100 7h 55m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON