Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 865 at 10:31, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 865 Southwest	ABQ 10:31	BUR 11:40	10%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117	1h 46m Denver	DEN 08:31 → BUR 10:04WN 1557	5h 43m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	97%	90%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	1h 20m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	6h 39m	96%	82%
United Details →	ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621	2h 52m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	6h 48m	98%	81%
American Details →	ABQ 05:33 → DFW 08:27AA 1231	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:49AA 1208	7h 16m	94%	76%
American Details →	ABQ 12:10 → DFW 15:03AA 3586 · flown by Envoy	3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:54 → BUR 20:26AA 2597	9h 16m	100%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON