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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4381 at 11:41, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4381 Southwest ABQ 11:41 BWI 17:31 12% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117 3h 06m Denver DEN 09:51 → BWI 15:23WN 1509 8h 02m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 47m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 2h 37m Minneapolis MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565 7h 45m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 6h 53m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:20 → ATL 16:30DL 1004 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:59 → BWI 20:04DL 2928 6h 44m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741 3h 05m Denver DEN 18:08 → BWI 23:38UA 2843 8h 05m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → ABQ 05:33 → DFW 08:27AA 1231 2h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → BWI 15:02AA 2669 7h 29m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 12:13 → IAH 15:30UA 6151 · flown by Mesa 2h 55m Houston IAH 18:25 → BWI 23:04UA 1830 8h 51m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON