Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 117 at 05:21 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 117 ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2120 ABQ 18:36 → DEN 20:06 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 117 Southwest Flight history →	ABQ 05:21	DEN 06:45	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
UA 5988 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 05:30	DEN 07:00	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 621 United Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	DEN 08:23	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 1228 United	ABQ 10:45	DEN 12:16	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 121 Southwest	ABQ 10:46	DEN 12:11	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 4419 Southwest	ABQ 08:56	DEN 10:23	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1741 United Flight history →	ABQ 13:33	DEN 15:03	12%	4%	0.6%	85%
OO 5446 SkyWest	ABQ 18:05	DEN 19:36	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 725 United Flight history →	ABQ 16:20	DEN 17:50	17%	7%	0.6%	55%
WN 5021 Southwest	ABQ 14:01	DEN 15:27	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 123 Southwest	ABQ 16:01	DEN 17:27	20%	6%	0.5%	no record
WN 2120 Southwest	ABQ 18:36	DEN 20:06	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON