Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1231 at 05:33 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day AA 1231 ABQ 05:33 → DFW 08:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 9 ABQ 16:08 → DFW 19:08 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1231 American Flight history →	ABQ 05:33	DFW 08:27	7%	4%	0.9%	88%
AA 99 American Flight history →	ABQ 07:04	DFW 10:00	10%	5%	0.9%	90%
AA 999 American Flight history →	ABQ 08:21	DFW 11:14	12%	5%	1.0%	84%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 12:10	DFW 15:03	13%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 10:08	DFW 13:01	14%	4%	0.8%	73%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 14:16	DFW 17:09	17%	6%	0.8%	77%
AA 3053 American	ABQ 16:10	DFW 19:04	23%	10%	1.3%	no record
AA 9 American Flight history →	ABQ 16:08	DFW 19:08	23%	11%	1.3%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON