Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3184 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3184 ABQ 06:16 → LAX 07:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3410 ABQ 12:41 → LAX 13:45 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3184 Southwest	ABQ 06:16	LAX 07:21	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 4115 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	LAX 07:09	5%	2%	0.6%	95%
AA 6444 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 07:02	LAX 08:08	11%	3%	0.6%	97%
OO 3814 SkyWest	ABQ 12:07	LAX 13:15	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 18:48	LAX 19:59	13%	5%	0.6%	87%
OO 4897 SkyWest	ABQ 12:32	LAX 13:38	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
WN 3410 Southwest	ABQ 12:41	LAX 13:45	16%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON