Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: WN 508 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 508 Southwest	ABQ 07:26	MDW 11:14	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 153 Southwest	ABQ 14:01	MDW 17:50	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117	1h 06m Denver	DEN 07:51 → MDW 11:14WN 1674	4h 53m	98%	93%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	8h 15m	99%	86%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:46 → HOU 09:01WN 127	3h 55m Houston	HOU 12:56 → MDW 15:33WN 234	8h 47m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 10:02 → DAL 12:56WN 113	1h 06m Dallas	DAL 14:02 → MDW 16:24WN 4522	5h 22m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON