Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, DL 535 at 08:30, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 535 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 08:30	MSP 12:04	5%	2%	0.4%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest	2h 40m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 10m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	5h 45m	98%	90%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117	51m Denver	DEN 07:36 → MSP 10:34WN 935	4h 13m	94%	89%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	8h 06m	99%	86%
United Details →	ABQ 13:33 → DEN 15:03UA 1741	3h 42m Denver	DEN 18:45 → MSP 21:50UA 2076	7h 17m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest	56m Los Angeles	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	6h 42m	94%	84%
American Details →	ABQ 05:33 → DFW 08:27AA 1231	3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:49 → MSP 14:20AA 1668	7h 47m	97%	78%
American Details →	ABQ 10:08 → DFW 13:01AA 3535 · flown by Envoy	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:48 → MSP 18:18AA 2406	7h 10m	98%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON