Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 1087 at 05:36, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1087 Southwest	ABQ 05:36	OAK 07:07	3%	1%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	3h 58m Portland	PDX 17:33 → OAK 19:23AS 2082 · flown by Horizon	8h 49m	100%	97%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117	1h 46m Denver	DEN 08:31 → OAK 10:03WN 1696	5h 42m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	97%	92%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON