Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2174 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2174 ABQ 06:19 → ORD 10:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2068 ABQ 13:45 → ORD 17:52 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2174 American	ABQ 06:19	ORD 10:27	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1846 United	ABQ 07:53	ORD 11:59	9%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 1557 United Flight history →	ABQ 11:44	ORD 15:38	18%	6%	1.0%	63%
AA 2068 American	ABQ 13:45	ORD 17:52	28%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON