tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AS 54 at 11:55, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 54 Alaska ABQ 11:55 PDX 13:49 9% 3% 0.8% no record
AS 2269 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record ABQ 11:34 PDX 13:35 7% 2% 0.3% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117 1h 51m Denver DEN 08:36 → PDX 10:19WN 3459 5h 58m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest 1h 31m Salt Lake City SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209 5h 15m 98% 91%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 3h 54m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 10h 05m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 05:30 → DEN 07:00UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 5h 17m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 3h 04m Denver DEN 11:27 → PDX 13:09UA 644 7h 09m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest 2h 51m Los Angeles LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766 7h 20m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → ABQ 14:43 → SEA 16:55AS 330 3h 30m Seattle SEA 20:25 → PDX 21:22AS 2387 · flown by Horizon 7h 39m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 52m Houston IAH 20:17 → PDX 22:48UA 1420 9h 40m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON