Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4442 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4442 ABQ 06:42 → PHX 07:06 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 5040 ABQ 18:36 → PHX 18:58 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4442 Southwest	ABQ 06:42	PHX 07:06	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 158 Southwest	ABQ 09:57	PHX 10:20	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 2760 American	ABQ 09:00	PHX 09:29	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	ABQ 11:56	PHX 12:21	14%	7%	0.7%	90%
WN 385 Southwest	ABQ 12:27	PHX 12:51	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
MQ 3879 Envoy	ABQ 15:20	PHX 15:48	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 160 Southwest	ABQ 17:31	PHX 17:54	24%	10%	0.5%	no record
WN 5040 Southwest	ABQ 18:36	PHX 18:58	27%	11%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON