Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3070 at 06:51, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3070 Southwest	ABQ 06:51	SAN 07:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117	1h 51m Denver	DEN 08:36 → SAN 09:58WN 1754	5h 37m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	5h 13m	98%	81%
United Details →	ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621	2h 52m Denver	DEN 11:15 → SAN 12:41UA 1940	6h 41m	98%	75%
American Details →	ABQ 11:56 → PHX 12:21AA 1352	1h 58m Phoenix	PHX 14:19 → SAN 15:45AA 1951	4h 49m	93%	72%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	1h 27m Portland	PDX 15:02 → SAN 17:30AS 425	6h 56m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 08:50 → SAN 09:52DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	4h 52m	99%	71%
American Details →	ABQ 10:08 → DFW 13:01AA 3535 · flown by Envoy	3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:44 → SAN 18:05AA 2266	8h 57m	99%	69%
American Details →	ABQ 05:33 → DFW 08:27AA 1231	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:19 → SAN 10:38AA 2034	6h 05m	92%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ABQ 14:16 → DFW 17:09AA 3777 · flown by Envoy	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:59 → SAN 19:13AA 1789	5h 57m	70%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON