tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5840 SkyWest ABQ 09:44 SFO 11:48 22% 10% 0.5% no record
UA 1427 United ABQ 15:59 SFO 17:37 26% 13% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 9h 42m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688 55m Atlanta ATL 12:59 → SFO 14:50DL 750 8h 50m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 14:08 → IAH 17:25UA 3986 · flown by Mesa 2h 24m Houston IAH 19:49 → SFO 22:12UA 1202 9h 04m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → ABQ 11:20 → ATL 16:30DL 1004 1h 30m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SFO 19:57DL 495 9h 37m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 12:13 → IAH 15:30UA 6151 · flown by Mesa 1h 45m Houston IAH 17:15 → SFO 19:28UA 1134 8h 15m 97% 76%
AlaskaDetails → ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon 1h 14m Portland PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236 6h 06m 95% 75%
SouthwestDetails → ABQ 05:21 → DEN 06:45WN 117 1h 51m Denver DEN 08:36 → SFO 10:09WN 4303 5h 48m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621 2h 58m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 7h 04m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON