Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1151 at 15:33, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1151 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 15:33	BOS 16:26	30%	23%	2.2%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	ACK 10:52 → DCA 12:29B6 2493	1h 56m Washington	DCA 14:25 → BOS 16:00B6 1354	5h 08m	92%	58%
JetBlue Details →	ACK 12:02 → JFK 13:08B6 92	2h 32m New York	JFK 15:40 → BOS 17:07B6 618	5h 05m	96%	55%
United Details →	ACK 10:53 → EWR 12:39UA 4182 · flown by GoJet	3h 51m Newark	EWR 16:30 → BOS 17:43UA 2433	6h 50m	93%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON