Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 2493 at 10:52, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 2493 JetBlue Flight history →	ACK 10:52	DCA 12:29	20%	12%	2.2%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


JetBlue Details →	ACK 15:33 → BOS 16:26B6 1151	1h 38m Boston	BOS 18:04 → DCA 19:58B6 2255	4h 25m	83%	49%
United Details →	ACK 10:53 → EWR 12:39UA 4182 · flown by GoJet	1h 21m Newark	EWR 14:00 → DCA 15:23UA 4433 · flown by GoJet	4h 30m	90%	47%
United Details →	ACK 15:44 → EWR 17:30UA 4494 · flown by GoJet	2h 50m Newark	EWR 20:20 → DCA 21:53UA 4457 · flown by GoJet	6h 09m	88%	34%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	ACK 15:33 → BOS 16:26B6 1151	50m Boston	BOS 17:16 → DCA 19:04B6 1955	3h 31m	62%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON